And a Child Shall Lead Them

There is a common belief in Democratic circles, most recently stated by the Gadlflyer’s Paul Waldman, that the youth vote is a sign of future strength for donkeys. Kerry's best constituency was voters under 30. These voters are consistently more tolerant on social and cultural issues than their parents and grandparents. Therefore, the reasoning goes, as this group becomes a larger share of the electorate, the pendulum will gradually swing to the Democrats.

This scenario is certainly possible, but it is certainly no sure thing. First of all, the youth vote is always unstable. The very factors that make young people unlikely to vote also means that they swing radically from one political pole to another. Remember, the Boomers loved the Kennedys until they decided that they would rather become the backbone of the Reagan coalition. They used to be liberalism's greatest friends, and now they are our most significant stumbling block. While the old canard that people become more conservative as they get older is probably false, it is true that people become more fixed in their beliefs. The problem with the boomers is that they fixed in the wrong place. The current youth generation could do the same.

Second, the youth vote may be more tolerant on social issues, but they also appear to be more conservative on economics. I am speaking mainly from anecdotal evidence, but it seems as if they are real believers in the Horatio Alger myth and the importance of self-help. If I had to peg the under-thirty crowd's ideological predisposition as anything, I would label them libertarian, not liberal. This would not bode well for the future, since they could decide that economic issues are more important and start voting Republican.

Thirdly and lastly, to focus on a secular realignment based on the youth vote is an overly passive strategy. They may be trending in our direction for now, but major events or Republican strategy could reverse that trend. It also ignores the face that our strongest ideological allies, the New Deal generation, are dying off. They are being replaced with a generation which is simply bigger than the Gen Xers. The Boomers just didn't have as many kids, remember?

So by all means, let's cultivate young voters. But to take them for granted, or to assume that they will continue to support us, or to believe that their backing will be enough..... Well, that would just spell disaster.