Explaining Republican Weirdness

The vast majority of the people are against the Schiavo intervention. And the nuclear option. They are unhappy with the state of the economy (this is pretty scary) and our presence in Iraq. The numbers on Social Security Privatization are still heading south. So why, in the face hostile public opinion, do the Republicans go ahead and push these issues anyway?

Avedon and Digby have a theory: that Republicans don't worry about public opinion because they don't worry about elections. Essentially they think that the "fix" is in, and therefore don't have to worry about public accountability. If the elections are being stolen, public opinion is simply irrelevant.

This is a pretty serious accusation. But there are alternative explanations. It could just be hubris: they have been in power so long they can't imagine losing it. Or it could be that they don't have much respect for Democrats' ability to wage a real campaign. After all, the last really good campaign we ran was in 1992. Or their leadership has perhaps decided that they don't have to worry about re-election because of gerrymandering/term limits. House and Senate members in strongly Republican areas aren't going to lose, and the President can't run again, so where's the problem? Remember, the moderates in the party, the ones representing marginal districts, have zero influence these days. Or it could be that Republicans believe they exist in a "faith-based" reality, and therefore these numbers don't really mean anything. Finally, it could be that the Republicans think that they can move public opinion in their direction. After all, they've always been able to do so before.

All of the these hypotheses have some merit, but I'd like to propose another possibility. I think the reason Republicans don't worry about public opinion on the issues is that they believe that issues don't matter. If you believe that the voters don't make decisions based on policy, then you don't have to worry about what they think about policy.

Imagine you're a Republican, and look at the last election. The economy was mediocre, there were scandals, Bush made a mess of the debates, Iraq wasn't going well, etc., etc. And the Republicans still win. Why? Because of "values" (which of course aren't real issues at all - there is always going to be some convenient group to attack), and because of "character" (Bush is a regular guy and Kerry is an elitist snob). This would certainly be evidence that the voters don't make their decision based on substantive issues of public concerns. Therefore there is no accountability and you can do whatever you want.

Of course the Republicans are completely wrong about this. Issues DO matter, and you can't suspend the forces of political gravity forever. The War on Terror more than anything else re-elected the Republicans, and without another massive attack, its importance will fade over time. I'd contend that it's gone as an issue already. When was the last time we had a terror warning? (Interesting that they stopped after the election, isn't it?) The media has moved on. The chief topics of discussion these days are the corrupt radical right and their attempt to defend DeLay, kill Social Security, destroy the Courts and the Senate, and impose a theocracy on the country. How is this a popular re-election strategy again?

So it is my opinion that the Republicans have convinced themselves that the public's position on issues doesn't effect their re-election prospects. And I think that they are in for a very big surprise if they keep it up.