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The South Has Risen

Friday, June 10, 2005

Pundits and Republicans have insinuated (not too subtly) that Democrats are overly reliant on black voters to win elections. The implication of course is that blacks are not "real" Americans. As an argument this is pretty insulting, but it also ignores the extent to which Republicans are reliant on the South. You know, the part of the country that didn't want to be American at all. So just for fun, I ran the numbers to see how the Republicans would do if the 11 states of the Old Confederacy had won their bid for independence.

Looking first at the Presidential election, George Bush defeated John Kerry with 51.2% of the 2-party popular vote (i.e. if you ignore the 3rd-party vote). If you remove the South from the election, then the results are a mirror image of reality: Kerry wins with an identical 51.2%. And the world would be a better place right now.

The results for the Electoral College are simply spectacular. In 2004, Bush won the electoral college 286-251, with 53.2% of electoral votes cast. If the Southern electors are excluded, then Kerry crushes Bush 251-133, a whopping electoral landslide of 65.2% of the vote. All hail President Kerry!

But what about Congress? Well, the House is currently 232-203 Republican (if you include Bernie Sanders as a D), for a 53.3% majority. The Republicans dominate the House seats in the Old Confederacy 84-47. Only in Arkansas and Tennessee to Democrats control a majority of the seats. Exclude the South, and the Democrats hold a narrow 156-148 edge, with 51.3% of the seats. Congratulations Speaker Pelosi!

The Senate would behave similarly. Right now the Republicans have a solid 55-45 majority (caucusing Jeffords with the D's). Here again the Party of Lincoln relies on Southern seats for a majority: they hold 18 of 22 Southern seats. Remove them from the Senate, and the D's have a 41-37 majority (52.5% of the seats). Say hi to Majority Leader Reid!

To put it simply: No South, no Republican majority. The Republicans are utterly reliant on Southern votes, so it is no surprise that their leadership largely speaks with twang. In many respects the Republican party has become a vehicle for Southern political ambition.

The South hasn't had this much influence since the Virginia Dynasty. Remember, the Southern nationalists only turned to secession after they lost their ability to dominate the union from within (to steal a line from Shelby Foote). Now they have accomplished what they set out to do in the first place: win control of the destiny of the nation. God help us.

So no more talk about the South rising again. It has already risen.

Posted by Arbitrista @ 6:33 AM
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