Prerequisites of Success

With all of the bad news for the GOP this year, there is a real possibility for a big Democratic year in 2006. What's cool is that there are now "zeitgeist" stories in the mainstream media to this effect: the New York Times wrote an article to this effect today. This means that quality candidates considering a race are more likely to get in. Which is very, very important.

I'm not saying that you should take the NYT too seriously - you shouldn't. But the first half of the battle is on the recruitment side of the ledger, and that is determined the year before a race. So a bad year in '05 can mean that you have the quality candidates in place necessary to take advantage of any opportunities in '06. This doesn't mean that we are guaranteed victory in '06 - only that we will have all the elements in place. And that's not a bad start.

It's nice when what I've learned as a political scientist from Gary Jacobson and what I've learned as a political junkie from Charlie Cook coincide.