The Coming Realignment?

Sometimes being right about something is just no fun.

About ten years ago I identified immigration and globalization as the issues most likely to cause a realignment. The party coalitions formed in the aftermath of the civil rights revolution and the Vietnam War have been remarkably stable and seemed likely to remain so without major social, economic, or demographic changes. Given the capacity of global trade and population movements to drive those sorts of changes, how both parties were internally divided on them, and the importance of them as matters of concern, I expected that over the long term they would emerge as the dominant political issues of the day - splintering the old party coalitions in the process and forging a new political balance of power.

And after a long time of waiting and many ephemeral distractions, it looks like my expectation is finally coming to pass. The War on Terror has obscured the growing salience of immigration and trade issues. But over the last week every major (and most minor) media outlet has been consumed with the question of immigration. In the previous weeks the issue was about the foreign ownership of American ports. I'm going to risk a prediction that this complex of issues will gradually displace, or at least absorb, the old ones.

There has been a great deal of political confusion on the issue, since neither party has a consensus position. The Republicans are divided between the nationalists (who are protectionists and nativists) and the corporatists (who like open borders and free trade). The Democrats are divided between populists (who are protectionists and nativists), multiculturalists (who are pro-immigration), and internationalists (who like immigration and free trade).

Notice anything interesting? The working class base of both parties (who are the majority of the population) want us to end illegal immigration, reduce legal immigration, and protect American jobs from international competition. The upper-class intellectual/financial leadership of both parties are supportive of open trade and large amounts of immigration. In other words, the division on these issues is ultimately about class.

What complicates the picture even further is that the non-white & non-black element of the population, which is primarily Latino, and their political allies view opposition to immigration as essentially racist. And in many cases they are entirely correct. The fact that the Latino vote is the hottest political commodity in the country only makes both parties more confused.

What's going to happen? I think the ball is in the Democrats' court. My expectation is that Republicans will be entirely paralyzed by these issues. They are more ruthless about courting the working-class vote than Democrats, but they are also entirely beholden to their corporate paymasters. I expect that their position will be driven by the Democratic response. If Democrats come out in favor of greater protections from international competition and moderate restrictions on immigration, I think that you will see a mass defection of Latinos to the Republican party and a considerable return of white working class voters to the Democrats. We will then see an essentially class-based politics, with Latinos serving as an auxiliary to the right. If on the other hand the Democrats stick to an essentially free trade position and a permissive stance on immigration, then the Republicans will embrace a position of cultural nationalism. It is unclear which party emerges as the majority in either scenario. In the future there will be an internationalist party and a nationalist party - it just remains to be seen which party will be which, and whether the flavors are of the right or left.

I really have no idea of how this all going to play out. And as of yet I have no clear idea about what we should do about international trade and immigration. But it sure is going to be interesting to watch.