Sad Truth

Partly through Dr. Brazen Hussy's influence, I have become much more of an environmentalist over the last few years. I've learned a lot about species loss, resource depletion, and global warming - how it works, and what the trendlines are. No matter how scary you think it is, I'm sorry to tell you that it is worse. The reality is that it is too late. About 100 species have been classified as hopeless cases, with more on the way. The forest cover in large parts of the 3rd world is going to entirely disappear in the next decade. And the data from ocean currents and the poles indicate that the tipping point of global climate change has already been reached.

But let's just pretend for a moment. Let's imagine that the research is too pessimistic, and that there is still time prevent catastrophe. It would be fun to think so. There are a lot of policies that would be required to ameliorate the harm of environmental decline - strict protection of national parks, much tougher conservation laws, a massive investment in alternative energies, a drive for mass transit and energy conservation, family planning & population controls, etc.

Regrettably there are 2 more problems. Alternative energies might not work - it is a real question whether they can produce sufficient power to meet the demand of current use, much less the needs of industrializing India and China. As MaxSpeak notes, wind and solar have serious problems. Nuclear power is a non-starter, and "sustainable fossil fuels" sounds more like a slogan than a technology. Barring the miraculous development of eco-technology, we are probably stuck with the energy resources that we have. If that is true, then a real reduction in fossil fuel emissions could lead to a massive cut in living standards.

Which brings me to problem #2. I know too much about politics to think that the political will exists to implement these reforms. We have made zero progress over the last generation in environmental policy, because those who "benefit" from environmental decline are busy telling people what they want to hear, and have a lot more money to push their "don't worry, be happy" message. To push the kinds of changes that would really be required would invite a political war in which the bad guys would have lots of allies and the good guys would have few. Just imagine the phrase "take your cars away" in a 30-second spot. Game over.

And even if you could convince the American electorate to make the necessary sacrifices, a U.S. - only solution i inadequate. The entire globe would have to rally around the new policies. Hell people, they couldn't even get the (very tepid) Kyoto protocol enforced! We didn't even sign the damned thing!

The most likely scenario is that we will continue along as we have, the frog being cooked alive in the proverbial pot. Nothing will be done until the consequences are undeniable, when it will be far, far too late to do anything about it.

In the meantime, I'm going to live my life in the fantasy world of unlikely impossibilities, re-arranging deck chairs and tending to my own garden. It will all be tinged with unreality, because I will never forget what is really going on. But I will muddle along well enough, I suppose, given humanity's remarkable ability to get used to anything - no matter how terrible.