Discouraging Results

Francine Busby lost the special election in California's 50th House district last night, 50-44. And it is not good news. Of course I'm sorry for Francine, but I'm more sorry for the Democratic party's chances of re-taking the Congress this year.

One could argue (and they undoubtedly will) that the results of this election should not be over-interpreted. After all, it is a Republican seat, and Busby did make mistakes late in the election, and Busby did improve dramatically on her previous performance, and Bilbray did have very high name recognition from his previous service in Congress, and the Republicans did spend a lot of money, and, and and.....

It's all just a bunch of excuses, isn't it?

The fact is that Kerry won 44% of that seat 2 years ago, and Busby won an identical margin. Forget the 2004 Busby results - that was against an incumbent. In an open seat, Busby received the same share that Kerry did. Corruption, Iraq, high oil prices all amounted to the Democrats still coming up short again. And don't sing yourself to sleep with the lullabye that the Republicans outspent Busby, because the Republicans will always outspend us.

Of even more concern is the low turnout in these primaries across the board. We expect low turnout among Republicans, given their manifest disaffection with Bush and the Congress. But with the scent of victory in the air, why aren't Democrats showing up to the polls? Because if we don't have high turnout on our side, it won't matter if their side doesn't show up either. A wash is a loss in this case.

Last week I saw a speech by a Democratic member of Congress to a group of liberals. He was challenging the idea that the Democrats should draw bright lines between themselves in the Republicans. According to this congressman, the Democratic strategy was to keep the Republican base quiescent by not putting up too much of a fight. If the dispirited conservatives are absent from the polls, then the Democrats would enjoy a huge advantage and win.

And now we are beginning to see the fruits of this strategy. It doesn't just demobilize Republicans, it demobilizes Democrats too. To put up no fight at all is to make Democrats just as alienated from their leadership as the Republicans are from theirs.

I am persuaded that Democrats should hold off on any impeachment or censure drives, because they are naked assaults that would gin up the Republicans. But I must say that there are intelligent ways to attack the other side that will split the Republicans - such as deficits, civil liberties, and social tolerance - if these issues are properly represented. I can understand the rationale for muting the differences on cultural issues, or foreign policy, or even economics in some cases, but to erase the distinction in every area is to demoralize one's own base and give independents the idea that the 2 parties are all the same.

Defend civil liberties, emphasize port security, champion social tolerance and attack the other side for fostering hate, assail crony capitalism and corruption - give us something. I don't want a perfect 100% liberalism, but give me some evidence that you've got a spine. Because if you don't show that you'll fight for them, why do you think voters and activists will fight for you?