One More Thing

To return to politics for a moment, there is a growing body of evidence that Rudy Guiliani will be running for the presidency in 2008. I have generally discounted him as a candidate, but upon further reflection I think it might be a good thing for Democrats if he runs. Guiliani will likely draw from the independent/moderate-minded Republicans that are McCain's base in the party. If Guiliani is on the ballot, McCain's margins will be reduced.

One could argue that Guiliani will help McCain by making the latter appear more liberal because of the latter's conservatism on social issues. But I can see how this will both increase the salience of social issues in the campaign. McCain would then be forced to either emphasize the degree to which he is a social conservative - hurting him in the general election, or risk losing the nomination to a more socially conservative candidate.

I still think McCain will have more trouble than some expect getting the nomination. But we should be prepared to lay the groundwork against him, just in case. Anything that makes his life more difficult is fine with me.