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The Third Estate
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What Has It Been Until Now In The Political Order?
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By Request

Monday, September 04, 2006
Here's an email sent to me by a loyal reader whose name I will keep private in case they don't want it revealed...

Just wonder if you have or will be writing about the news reports regarding the "upsurge" in employment number and how it supposedly means the economy is doing better.
The reason I ask will probably seem kind of lame, but I'm going to tell you anyway :)
I'm a statistic that doesn't get statistic-ized. Since I've been an independent contractor off and on for 12+ years, I don't get laid-off, but I don't have work either. I did have a "real" job for about a year and got laid off from that one; but that was in 2001.
I don't know how to intelligently put my thoughts about the whole job/unemployment/dumb ass stuff. I just know how it affects me. And, you write about it so well.
Anyway, if you have or will be writing about such, would you let me know, please?
The unemployment figures in the U.S. are actually extremely mis-leading, for a number of reasons. First of all, they only count people who are seeking jobs. Folks who get too discouraged to keep looking just aren't included. Second, the numbers include people who we would normally think of as part-time workers. Third, people who are self-employed but don't have any contracts at the moment are still counted as "employed." Fourth, we don't include our prison population in our unemployment figures. Given that we have an imprisonment rate of 738 per 100,000 - all of whom are part of the working age population - which far exceeds that of other industrialized democracies (Britain comes in at 147 per 100,000), this conceals our unemployment rate.

Take these and other factors together, and the U.S. unemployment rate is far higher than that recorded by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. One study I read indicated that we have a "de facto unemployment rate" of 13%. Not exactly paradise.

This is all particularly bitter for me because by ANY measure I am one of the unemployed - looking but not finding anything.
Posted by Arbitrista @ 4:04 PM
4 Comments:
  • I know who wrote the email, but I'll keep them anonymous as well :)

    I am continuing to look for work myself. I wish they had some numbers on the "chronically unemployed". And, the fact that people who work as independent contractors are considered employed even if they have no work is big, lumpy, b.s.

    You do write very well and I'm glad you addressed the question. I'll be visiting the link momentarily.

    By Blogger Penguin, at 8:38 PM  
  • Hey, Publius, here's something that gives me hope...and it's been so hard to come by, lately.:)

    According to this article , voters are anti-incumbent and angry. They also see the Democratic Party as the one more likely to bring changes.

    Seeing that kind of sentiment this far in advance of the next election seems like a very positive thing to me. I bet it's going to slowly gather strength, then start to snowball sometime in the next 12 to 18 months. I'm almost beginning to believe that this might actually turn into the democrats' race to lose.

    A win would, hopefully, signal great things for the deficit, unemployment and many other things related to the economy, at the very least. Maybe, finally, the tide is starting to turn.

    By Blogger Rebecca, at 12:39 AM  
  • The Democrats are certainly in a very strong position right now. My chief concerns are that timid strategy by the Dems, well-financed and well-organized campaigns by the Reps, and lower gas prices (usual during the fall) will make things more difficult. But so far everything looks good.

    By Blogger Arbitrista, at 11:18 AM  
  • Well, we may be seeing some indications in the mid-term elections. There seems to be a new demographic called mortgage moms, which may be large enough to tilt the vote - and they are not happy with the economy right now.

    I think I'm actually feeling little spurts of optimism...an entirely unfamiliar experience lately. I'd better clamp down on it for the time being, until we see where things are headed, anyway. Otherwise, I may start getting a little giddy.:)

    By Blogger Rebecca, at 10:51 PM  
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