The Republicans Have A Problem

Inspired by Kevin Drum, I've been taking a close look at the exit poll results for the 2006 midterm elections. Once you dig into the numbers, there's a lot of very encouraging signs for Democrats, and a lot of bad news for the GOP.

Over at Washington Monthly's blog, Drum argues that the exit polls indicate a broad-based wave against the Republicans, with virtually every constituency moving towards the Democrats by about 5% since 2004. It wasn't religious voters, or the young, or by winning over conservatives that Democrats won. The ideological scores of the defeated incumbents don't indicate that right-wing congressman were particularly vulnerable, undercutting the case for a general rejection of conservatism. (My problem with this last point is that those conservatives might have been in swing districts, and hence out of step with their constituency and thereby ripe for defeat. It would take a more careful analysis to find out).

I think Drum is right to argue that there was a general anti-Republican wave in 2006. But if you look at those constituencies that shifted more than the wave, and you take into account the turn out figures for different parts of the electorate, you can discern a very interesting story. A story that makes me very optimistic for the Democratic Party.

First a look at the turn out numbers. The Republicans believe that they lost because of Iraq, and because their abandonment of conservative principles cost them the support of their base. The numbers don't support this proposition. The 2006 electorate was if anything more conservative than 2004, at least in demographic terms - it was whiter, more male, older, wealthier, more religious, and more married. That's right, folks. All those claims by Karl Rove that they were turning out the Republican base was completely accurate. Rove's error was in thinking that the base was enough, which it wasn't (It's also possible that the Democratic electorate was smaller because of the lack of competition in heavily Democratic seats).

In fact, the conservative base appears to be shrinking. There was a broad-based rejection not just of the Republican party, but of conservatism itself. The percentage of self-indentified conservatives was down from 34 to 32% since 2004. But given the turn out of Republican-leaning constituencies, the proportion of conservatives should have increased by around 3 points or so. This means that there 5 percent of the population has abandoned conservatism, at least for the moment. Democrats did win over some conservatives in 2006, but only an additional 3 points. Well under the national tide. And Democratic candidates only improved by a single point over 2004 in their ability to win over Republican voters.

The Republicans also argue that Bush's unpopularity did them in. Bush clearly hurt, but the Republican incumbents actually did a fairly good job at separating themselves from the President. Bush's disapproval ratings were 11 points higher than in 2004, and 8% more of Americans think the country is on the wrong track. But the Democrats actually did worse among people believing that than they did 2 years ago: 5 points less among Bush-disapprovers, and 3 points less among wrong-trackers. In other words, the Republicans lost even though they had a pro-GOP electorate and had separated themselves (to a degree) from Bush. Wow.

But what about the Democrats? How did they win with a pro-Republican electorate? As discussed, the anti-Republican wave gave the Dems an average of around 4 percent more of each subsection of the vote than they had in 2004. But they particularly well among some groups. Support was flat among blacks and gays, but then Democratic margins are so high among those groups that it's difficult to grow them. Other groups stand out more. Democratic perfomance improved by 14 points among Latinos, 11 points among Jews, and 9 points among the nonreligious. They also improved by 15 points among those without a high school education and did 8 points better among independents. More interesting, the Democrats improved by 11 points among those who thought the economy was doing well, and by 9 points among the wealthy.

It is the last group - the very wealthy- that was probably turned off by the war, scandals, and deficits, and it is they that the Republican congressman are probably thinking off when they talk about "returning to their principles." Unfortunately for Republicans, the these very wealthy people only make up 5% of the electorate - scarcely enough to tip the balance back in their direction.

So what does this barrage of numbers tell us? Namely that the conservative ascendancy is deeply shaken, while the Democrats are consolidating their political base. If the Democrats can hold on to the Latinos and Independents, and consolidate their grip on the working class and seculars, then the long-term prospects for the party are very, very bright. The Republicans, on the other hand, have to figure out how to rehabilitate not just their party, but their ideology as well - something that won't be easy as long Bush is in the White House.