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Hillary's Dinkins Dilemma
In 1989, Ed Koch had been the mayor of new york for 12 years and was seeking re-election. He faced a difficult strategic dilemma. Koch was challenged in the Democratic primary by the popular African-American candidate David Dinkins, who had rallied liberal support. Koch also faced a serious general election threat in Republican prosecutor Rudy Giuliani. Koch's problem was this: if he attacked Dinkins, he could win the primary, but in doing so he would so alienate African-Americans that he would have no hope against Giuliani. If he didn't attack Dinkins, there was a very real possibility that he would be denied re-nomination. Koch (probably correctly) decided to take his chances by not attacking Dinkins, and lost the primary. Dinkins went on to become the first African-American Mayor of New York City.
So what does this have to do with Barack Obama? Everything. I have argued before that Obama would have an excellent chance to deny Hillary Clinton the nomination because of his ability to unite liberals (who are uneasy about Hillary) and because he would monopolize the black vote, a constituency Hillary has been counting on.
But Obama presents an even graver threat to Hillary's chances than I originally realized. Obama is no Jesse Jackson, who white Democratic candidates could safely ignore. He has a legitimate shot at the nomination. He also underscores all of Hillary's perceived weaknesses. But worst of all for Clinton, from a strictly tactical perspective Obama re-creates the "Dinkins Dilemma" for Hillary. She would need to attack Obama in order to defeat him, but doing so would thoroughly alienate African-American voters and (fatally) damage her chances in the general election. But if she didn't attack Obama, he would retain his "Golden Boy" image and likely defeat her the primaries.
I have said before that Obama could win the nomination. I am going to take a risk and say that if he decides to run, he probably will win it. Which I think he's probably smart enough to have figured out.
2 Comments:
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I think we already had this discussion, but I'm sure you don't remember since you were so piss-ass drunk. :P
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You honestly think enough people would vote for Obama? I completely agree that he's at the top right now and seems to do no wrong in many people's eyes; however, he's still black. Although I would definitely vote for him, I don't think enough people are open to having a black president - in fact, I would even venture to say that some people who would normally vote democratic would not vote for him just b/c of his race. Obviously, he's well-supported as a senator, but I just cannot believe that enough people would be able to make the mental leap and actually support having a black man running the country.
Maybe I'm just overly cynical, but I don't think this country is progressive enough to elect someone who is not a white male.
comebacknikki, at 6:30 PM
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I wouldn't say I was piss-ass drunk.....
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but I'm fundamentally an optimistic. That's what makes me a liberal. I think that if you really dare people to do the right thing, the plurality of them will do it. Arbitrista, at 7:11 PM
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