This Is What We Voted For

Iraq is not moving towards civil war. It's in a civil war. The conflict is - hard to believe as it is - a relatively low-grade affair at the moment. When (not if) we leave, the intensity of the conflict will accelerate. The most likely scenario? The Shia will attack the Sunnis, and the Sunnis will get massacred. The Sunni world will rally to their defense with various forms of aid, led by the Saudis (who don't want an Iranian client on their front door). The Saudis and Iran will fight against each other for influence in Iraq, either directly or through proxies. Syria might support Iran. The Kurds will consolidate their grip in Northern Iraq and remain a U.S. client, or perhaps even ally with the Sunnis out of fear of Iran. Weirder things have happened. Oil prices will skyrocket.

This is a nightmare scenario, and an entirely predictable one. Every reasonably informed person knew that the aftermath of any U.S. invasion of Iraq would lead to civil conflict risk regional war. Unfortunately neither our political leadership not our pundit class contains many reasonably informed people. There will be no democracy in Iraq, because there will be no Iraq. There has never been an Iraq - only petty tyrants who gave their domains a name and called it a nation.

The suggestions of the Iraq Study Group will likely come to nothing. The Democratic majority in Congress will be able to do nothing. The increasing disillusionment of the American people will mean nothing. Why? Because Americans have chosen to flout their own constitutional precepts and invest full authority for foreign affairs in the chief executive. Unluckily for us, the present holder of that office is a fool.

It is obvious to everyone but the President that our adventure in Iraq has ended in failure. He won't change because he cannot admit failure. But we can't in fairness blame Bush for this disaster - we have to blame ourselves. We voted for someone to "take care of us" and "make us feel safe." We abandoned our responsibilities as a free people, and gave control over our nation's fate to an incompetent demagogue.

Hopefully the next time a prospective leader attempts to control us by fear, to lead us on harebrained adventures through lies and demagogy, we won't listen to him. But I doubt it.