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My Most Unexpected Blog Post Ever

Friday, January 04, 2008
I'm going to talk about...the IOWA CAUCUSES! Can you believe it?

You can read all about the meaning of the results at innumerable news sites and blogs, but I'd like to point a few things that really interested me:

1) This the first election I've ever heard of where the under-30 vote showed up in proportion to their population. These folks NEVER turn out at a decent clip, ESPECIALLY not in caucuses. It's just amazing. If Barack Obama can do this everywhere, we are looking at a fundamental change in the way campaigns have to be run - besides that fact that Obama will be the nominee and cream whatever chump the Republicans put up.

2) Barack Obama has to be the favorite for the nomination. Now I'm not saying Clinton is a goner, but Obama was close in NH anyway, and the favorable media attention from this victory should put him over. The next primary is only 5 days away, which probably isn't enough to stop Obama's momentum and change the narrative. Plus Obama is perfectly suited to New Hampshire's democratic primary electorate, being an intellectual bipartisan reformer type. If Obama wins there, he is almost certain to defeat Clinton in South Carolina, where the Democratic Primary will be half African-American. If Obama wins three in a row, he's going to cruise to the nomination. Clinton HAS to win New Hampshire - and I think her people know it.

3) If Barack does become the nominee, he will do it almost entirely on his own - solely with the strength of his personal organization. He doesn't have a ton of endorsements, he's not being supported by any of the major constituencies of the party - labor, women, environmentalists, or even the black leadership (my mustn't they be kicking themselves right now), or the liberal blogs. I'm not sure if I want a candidate that independent, but it's not totally unprecedented - John Kennedy did the same thing back in 1960.

4) Speaking of liberal blogs, I'm eagerly awaiting furious backpedaling by a bunch of "netroots" Obama-haters - strictly for the amusement factor. There's a reason I haven't spent my time attacking any of the other Democrats: they're all good candidates I could support, and there's no point saying anything you're going to regret later. I think that there are a lot of smart, well-meaning progressives out there, but sometimes I think they let their enthusiasm get away from them. We aren't electing a messiah, after all.

I will no go back to work and pretend I'm not getting sick with the crud Brazen Hussy has given me.
Posted by Arbitrista @ 12:43 PM
  • I would like to point out that I canvassed for Barack, did the whole door-knocking, phone-calling, sign waving bit.

    And the energy in my caucus last night was ELECTRIC. 239,000 Iowa Dems turned out to caucus last night... incredible.

    By Blogger Maggie, at 1:30 PM  
  • You rock. I wish I could have been there. Congratulations.

    By Blogger Arbitrista, at 1:40 PM  
  • In reference to point #4; clearly you are forgetting your rampant Kucinich bashing in your previous post...

    Some one I know is betting money on Clinton. I think he will be lighter in the pocket soonly.

    I have to say, I was a little upset that Huckabee got the republican nod, as that guy is essentially the polar opposite of everything I stand for. And I do not want to even think about what it would be like with him as prez.

    By Blogger Crawlspace, at 7:15 PM  
  • Crawlspace: I wasn't including Kucinich in my list. I can't forgive him for his blatant flip-flopping on abortion, and what an awful mayor he was.

    But yeah, Huckabee is a real loon. God help us if he won somehow.

    By Blogger Arbitrista, at 8:44 PM  
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