How To Stop Worrying And Love The Election

Do you hear that flushing sound? That's John McCain's campaign.

A President of his party with 70% disapproval ratings. 80% of Americans thinking the country is on the wrong track. Down by double digits in Virginia and New Hampshire. Trailing by a steady 8 points nationwide. Getting out-spent and out-organized. Losing the first presidential and vice-presidential debates. Repeated campaign gaffes and strategic blunders (Cutting Medicare? Really? Is that your plan to win Florida?) The guy just can't seem to catch a break lately. Nobody has ever been this far down this late in the election and come back to win the popular vote. By any usual indicator, McCain is toast. If the election were today, McCain and the Republicans would probably be Carterized.

So Democrats ought to be feeling pretty good right now, right? Well, not necessarily. This weekend and I heard a lot of fear. I hear it a lot at work too. It's not trepidation that comes with being close to the end of a very long campaign. It's not even the learned pessimism that comes with being a Democrat in the Bush era. It's something far more specific than that.

There are a number of ways that McCain could pull out this election. He could effectively change the campaign narrative by re-focusing it on Obama. A terrorist attack or other international event could highlight McCain's perceived (and I think, unjustified) reputation for foreign policy expertise. Stranger things have happened. But what is really bothering people is the simple fact that Barack Obama is a black man, and people question whether white Americans are willing to pull the lever for him because of the color of his skin.

This is the so-called Bradley Effect, named after the black mayor of LA who was leading in the polls for Governor of California but lost narrowly on election day. The idea is simple - that white voters will tell pollsters that they're undecided because they don't want to be perceived as racist, when in fact they plan on voting against the black candidate. It's a seductive concept, and during the 1980's and 1990's there was some evidence for it. But let me be perfectly clear - there is not a shred of evidence to suggest that the Bradley Effect is still operative. Since 1996, it just hasn't happened (see this article for more details).

One could suggest that races for governor and congress are different - that Americans won't be willing to vote for a black man for president, because the presidency is a very different office. Perhaps. But even if there were still a pool of voters willing to vote for a Democrat but unwilling to vote for a black man, it still highly unlikely to be enough. The Bradley Effect is about undecided voters, and the fact is that as the polls stand now, Obama would easily win the election even if the overwhelming majority of undecideds voted against him. If the race were a 45-40, there might be reason to worry. But it's more like 50-42. In addition, any Bradley Effect would likely be neutralized by greater than expected turnout by black voters, as well as greater support (there's a weird reverse Bradley effect where a strange percentage of blacks say they're voting for the Republican in election polls and don't). There's the whole issue of undercounting cellphone-only users. Finally, undecided voters in elections are far more likely than others to be swayed by economic issues. Which candidate do you think that helps, hmmm?

Might the polls close in the next month? Sure, it could happen. Is it still possible McCain could win? Hey, anything is possible. I could find a winning lottery ticket on the sidewalk or be struck on the head by a flying spaghetti monster. But it's pointless to get excessively upset at what is a remote prospect.

So everybody chill out. He's got this.