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State of the Presidential Race: Close

Friday, July 27, 2012
Looking at the opinion polls right now isn't that helpful, and as entertaining as Romney's gaffes in Britain are, by themselves they aren't going to turn the presidential race. Of greater importance are the economic and political fundamentals. My favorite prediction model is Alan Abramowitz's which has had a pretty good record the last few cycles. With 2nd quarter GDP growth out (a measly 1.5%) , that model is now set. According to his "Time for A Change" model, Obama should receive 50.5% of the 2-party vote. Yikes, that's a nailbiter. I take it back - in an election that close, campaign effects really could sway the outcome. So let's keep rooting for Romney's continuing incompetence.

P.S. The even-money fundamentals also demonstrate why, as usual, you shouldn't read the mainstream press's political coverage. They've got no idea what they're talking about:

"If you look at the fundamentals of this race, Romney should be ahead. And the fact is, he’s not." - Chuck Todd, etc. at MSNBC.

Wrong Chuck. It should be a tie, and guess what? It is.
Posted by Arbitrista @ 10:21 AM
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